31st Pick Review: Odafe Oweh
We know for sure that Eric DeCosta likes to get better. It is one of the things that makes me feel most secure in his stewardship of this franchise.
On night one of the 2021 NFL Draft, he proved to us that he is well and truly, captain of this ship now. The most un-Raven like edge rusher pick in a long time awaited us as the first night drew to a close. It tells us a lot about how DeCosta likes to learn and grow.
Odafe Jayson Oweh was, literally, the last guy I expected to be a Raven on draft night. The Ravens are habitual valuers of production at the edge rusher spot and Oweh… Does. Not. Have. It.
You can cut his 2019 season one way and say that he was close to the production they look for, he was only a situational player that year for Penn State – he played about half the snaps you would expect to see from a full-time college defensive end but was still on pace for the pressure and sack production the Ravens look for.
He wasn’t on pace for the run stopping percentage they usually want but he didn’t play many snaps against the run within his already limited sample size. If you project his 2020 season into a normal full season, he would have stopped the run at a clip the Ravens expect.
That’s a lot of ifs, buts and excuses that normally, just don’t cut it with the Baltimore front office. Everything about their history at the position tells you they value sample size and numbers – production matters to them. It’s not a simplistic viewing of a player either, they think sacks and pressures translate – the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour and they have religiously thought that at this position.
While this has been a successful mid-round strategy for finding pass rushers, they have rarely prioritised the position early. It may be that the production mantra was simply a method to find diamonds in the rough, now that they’ve dipped early they wanted projectable traits to build a dangerous pass rush.
I also wrote about how the cupboard is a little bare at pass rusher, they haven’t prioritised the position in the draft as much recently and therefore the production line we’ve had over recent years has dried up with the relatively slow development of Jaylon Ferguson. Maybe they wanted an impact player at the position to plug the developmental hole they have.
And maybe this signals a change in strategy of how they intend to get pressure on opposing Quarterbacks. It could be that they are sick and tired of patching together a pass rush with pressure packages, aging veterans and late-developing young players early in their career.
What is certainly true, is that the Oweh pick signals a changing of the guard and maybe a swing to find this team’s next great young pass rusher who will earn a second contract with the team. Oweh certainly has the raw gifts and the potential.
First the numbers on him, then the tape. Let me tell you, if you think the bare facts tell the whole story, if you think Oweh is just an athletic freak, you’d be wrong – this is not an athlete, this is one of those “football players”.
But he does happen to be a football player who runs absurdly fast and is outrageously explosive and agile for the position – really, we do need to have a chat with his creator to understand how one man was given such ridiculous gifts.
Literally the most relatively athletic Linebacker if you grade him that way, but also in the 99th percentile if you consider him a Defensive End, Oweh has lots of traits the Ravens have never really prioritised at the position before. He literally scores in the 90th percentile or above for Defensive Ends in every single test. He is genuinely, historically athletic at the position.
On tape is where the fun should always start and overall, I would say with Oweh, it does. I’m going to run this piece by looking at a selection of his games in chronological order. A player with such a small sample size needs some attention paid to his development as his improvements are likely to have been smaller and harder to notice.
If you don’t want to read on and get an idea for his progression over his career, I’ll summarise now. Oweh is a young pass-rusher, he’s 22 so not particularly young in age but young in his pass rush experience. Less than 300 snaps ago he was still adding to his arsenal of moves, testing them in games right the way up to his final games as a collegiate player. In 2019 he could never execute a sophisticated pass rush plan over the course of a game because he wasn’t on the field long enough. So he’s still very new to going to war with an offensive linemen over 60 snaps + a game. Consequently he is not at all polished as a pass rusher.
But I see growth, in his limited sample size, I see significant growth and it’s not just about his athletic gifts, which I don’t believe he’s fully unlocked yet as a pass rusher. He doesn’t yet use his explosion consistently at the snap, and he hasn’t managed to threaten the edge consistently enough with moves like the speed rip to get Offensive Tackles sufficiently worried about his speed off the edge. He lacks counters at the apex of the rush and he hasn’t yet learnt how to consistently convert speed to power but he has shown flashes of it. He needs loads more development but there is so much potential there, and for me it’s not just all about his athletic gifts, but that speed, explosion and bend is special, there is no denying it. I think the juice is probably worth the squeeze, chasing what could be a ridiculous pass rusher.
And one of the big reasons why I would be comfortable pulling the trigger as the Ravens have, is that Oweh isn’t your typical high-ceiling, under-developed pass rusher gamble pick. Usually those guys struggle to get on the field to develop because of their relative inability to play the run, so never really reach their full potential. That is not a problem with Oweh, he is a terror against the run. He plays with bend, leverage, smarts and violence. He looks like a typical Ravens edge-setter already and this is on an even more limited snap count than his pass rush so may even have room to get even better and become utterly dominant.
I was low on Oweh originally in the process but I did not give him enough time, after some people I respect talked highly of him, I went back and did more work and came away impressed. Maybe it’s just confirmation bias now the Ravens have picked him but this third, most in-depth study has me most impressed and most excited about his potential as an edge rusher in the league.
Here’s my report on him, focusing on five games across his college career.
Idaho 2019
In his first game of 2019, he doesn’t play many snaps and we don’t learn too much about him other than at this point in his career he has not logged anywhere near enough snaps, nor is he playing full enough games to be developing a plan for his rush or even delivering anything particularly effective beyond his initial move. We can see some moves developing but there’s little disengage at the apex of the rush. The one sack he does get is through the hint of a push-pull move after a pretty effective bull-rush, indicating some potential for converting considerable speed to power, and closing speed. The push-pull is definitely his most effective and go-to move at this point in his career, but also maybe because he didn’t need much else against the Idaho offensive line.
You can also see the beginning of him using his length to haul down Quarterbacks and ball carriers. Against the run, which he barely plays at all in this game, you can see Tight Ends are an irritant to him, he’s way too quick and powerful for them at the point of attack. You can also see him ready to play the run when he’s called upon – there is a great early example of a stack and shed, before finishing on the ball carrier and his explosion off the ball is already evident, though not consistent yet as he processes a little slowly in less obvious passing down situations, but it’s there and it’s filthy.
Minnesota 2019
This was a good hop further along into the 2019 season in week 11 but his snap count was still on the low side in the teens or the twenties. It didn’t rise into the thirties until after this game, hence why I’ll also look at their bowl game in 2019 next. It’s ten weeks later and he’s still bringing the push-pull early in the game but it’s not as effective. This OT seems to have done his homework and he’s holding steady on the pull. No sign of a counter yet. Later, we do see that he’s working on a cross-chop (seen in the clip below - going against the Left Tackle), he’s not yet locating with his left hand and there isn’t any hint of an inside move to help disguise it but he’s showing how fast, accurate and violent his hands can be with his right hand on the attempted pull-through. He’s not putting it all together yet but he’s starting to learn, impressive on such limited reps.
Against the run, we are starting to see the beginnings of how he will excel at this when allowed to do more of it. Frankly, I wasn’t sure why they weren’t already having him do more – he was showing a real propensity for it, yet he was still a situational pass-rusher. He was already popping the Offensive Tackle at the point of attack with violence, processing quickly with his eyes in the backfield and flowing directly to the ball carrier – making an impact on the play, or making the play himself. You could see his savvy in playing the run start to show up in a big way – diagnosing pre-snap, knowing where his gap is going to be and making pre-meditated moves to fill and bounce the run outside, when his assignment isn’t the edge. This game did, in the end, see the second-most snaps he played against the run all season and in the following weeks he saw more action on more obvious running downs. He stays so disciplined against the option too, but he is so difficult to option because of his explosion and closing speed, he’s going to run down the back in a hurry if you hand it off, and good luck getting outside him.
It’s also worth noting that his motor is still there and we start to see how some of his athletic traits can be an added advantage, chasing down run plays that he has no right to, from the back-side. You can also see already how impressive his bend is, it gives him leverage that seriously enhances his power.
Memphis 2019
Their bowl game sees his get-off getting more consistently scary and features plenty of examples of how teams are frightened of him and bringing multiple guys on assignment to slow him down/stop him. We are also starting to see more moves added in, he’s trying a speed rip, which presumably could be his greatest weapon given his crazy speed, or at least the threat of it could open up a world of other moves. There’s not much finish with it yet but it’s developing – when he gets to the point of turning the corner he hasn’t got enough disengagement to take advantage of his speed and bend. He’s too much into the offensive lineman’s body for too long without deploying the rip on the speed rip for example. He did pick up one sack right at the death, but it was an effort sack when he ran around a max-protecting Tight End.
He barely ever played the run in this game, so not much to write home about there, but even on a limited snap count the 2019 season, I have no concerns about plugging him in day one to set the edge.
Ohio State 2020
Fast forward one year and the Big Ten season starts later than other conferences. Penn State’s second game is against Ohio State and we are immediately reminded once again of Oweh’s growing power as a run defender. He plays with high intelligence against the run, processing so quickly. He will hurriedly establish a position of leverage against his man and use his bend and his length to stay stacked, before using his speed and explosion to get to the ball carrier. Come at him with anything less than a big offensive lineman and it’s over. But even if you come at him with that, he’s going to win quickly by getting right underneath the guy’s pads and controlling the point of attack. (Clip below he’s #28 on the right side of the defensive line)
As a pass rusher – we start to see him add more moves. A pretty effective bull-rush even against bigger linemen when he’s lined up inside or on a stunt. A less than stellar stab move as he isn’t quite able to counter when the offensive lineman drops an effective anchor. But he still doesn’t quite have the power in his hands to finish and disengage when a sack might be there for the taking. The pull through at the end of the rush, shown below when Oweh chops down on the lineman’s outside arm, is not quite enough to over-power the Tackle’s latch. (going against the Left Tackle in the clip below)
There are also times in this game where he gives up his chest and the lineman finds it simple to shut him down, he has a propensity for this that will need to be ironed out by the Ravens coaches.
Maryland 2020
Against Maryland, its just more of the same as a run defender but also showcases his ability to win quickly, break down at the edge, and then crash down using his explosion and closing speed to haul down ball carriers near the line of scrimmage. (Left Defensive End in the clip below)
What you’re able to start to see as we move through this second year and certainly in the Maryland game, is that he is starting to learn the value of getting on the move as a pass-rusher and marrying his feet with his hands. In the clip below, which looks similar to the one above but he’s setting up to rush the passer here, compared to holding the edge in the clip above, he uses the short jab step, up-field, to freeze the Tackle and get him flat-footed, which opens up the inside move for him, that he then finishes with his hands. He’s lucky he chose this move because it’s a QB draw and he makes a play, but the move itself shows some progression from his earlier games where he would stay pretty vanilla with his footwork. (Again, left Defensive End in the clip below)
He’s started to learn how his speed threatens the edge and how he can take advantage of this on inside moves. If he can unlock this still further, it will help to have more of a two-way-go at the next level. The final clip to show you is the one below where Oweh shows that he is progressing with his moves from when I first started breaking him down in the Idaho game. This rep has clean footwork, an effective stab into the chest followed by a quick club move to knock down the lineman’s outside hand, the ball’s out quick but he wins the rep and brings the kind of pressure you saw pretty consistently this past year. The only thing for improvement would be to rip through with his inside arm for a more emphatic disengage. (Going against the Right Tackle in the clip below)
This clip was followed over the next couple of series with a few more of these moves before the OT started to work out what was going on. Oweh gave it him a couple more times before turning to the inside move after he had made the Tackle start to overcompensate to ensure he wasn’t beaten around the edge with that club move. He was starting to show a plan, starting to put it all together and get into a rhythm where his opposite number did not know what was coming.
The only thing that remains to be said in closing is how much I actually think Oweh looks like a Raven on tape and I missed it. This is a smart football player, he’s so quick to process against the run and has the ability they look for in this phase of the game. But more than that he’s a relentless, unselfish, team-first guy, who will not stop. He’s tough, he’s hard hitting – lock the gates, Wink got a good one.