Trading Orlando Brown Jr: A Ravens Mock Draft

We’ve all done it. Ran a mock draft on PFF or The Draft Network, check the predictive board to see which group of players is likely to be taken next, and calculate that we can forego taking that guy we love until the 5th round. We can sit tight at our spots and execute advantageous trades based on the deviation the simulators have baked in, and not worry about other opportunistic teams trading above us to take guys we might potentially like. We are the only team allowed to trade on the board. Maybe we have a go six or seven times, maybe post version 6.2 to twitter as we got Devonta Smith to fall to 27 that time.

I am absolutely not knocking those website’s simulators, I use them myself, they are so interesting to play out scenarios and so much fun to discuss on twitter. What I am saying is that they are far from the real thing, and it’s why I was really keen to take part in Matt Miller’s Draft Scout website member, 7-round mock draft recently. While also not the real thing, at least there would be real life people playing the part of GM, often knowledgeable about their teams and their needs, as well as being paid-up members of a draft website so with at least some knowledge of the prospects.

What followed was a complete and utter trade-fest, where someone posted the Oprah Winfrey gif, pronouncing “you get a trade, you get a trade” to accurately describe what was taking place. The trades though, while sometimes unrealistic, gave a much better idea of how difficult the draft can be for GMs on draft night than the simulators do.

Prior to the first day I got some offers for Orlando Brown Jr. that rose to nowhere near the standard I would have accepted to trade our Pro Bowl Offensive Tackle, but as the first round continued on draft night I got an intriguing offer that I decided to run with and thus set off my draft. I should say that I had resolved not to trade Brown given how important he is to the balance of our offensive line but the return was good and I thought it would be interesting to challenge myself. Here is the move I made, and the rest of the mock summarised before I comment…

TRADE – We trade Orlando Brown Jr. to the Chicago Bears for Allen Robinson

1 – 27: Kwity Paye, EDGE, Michigan

TRADE – We trade the 58th and 104th overall pick (406 JJ Trade Value Chart Points) to the Denver Broncos for the 66th and 81st overall pick (445 Points)

TRADE – We trade the 66th and 131st overall pick (301 Points) to the Detroit Lions for the 72nd and 106th overall pick (312 points)

3 – 72: Jamar Johnson, S, Indiana

3 – 81: Milton Williams, DL, Louisiana Tech

4 – 106: Stone Forsythe, OT, Florida

5 – 171: Khyiris Tonga, NT, BYU

5 – 184: Patrick Johnson, EDGE, Tulane

6 – 210: Brenden Jaimes, OL, Nebraska

The first trade was a blockbuster and it was the start of the Chicago Bears being the main animator of the first round. We’d seen the Patriots trade up to pick 4 to select Trey Lance and trade multiple 1sts to do so but the Bears followed the trade with us with a trade of their first rounder this year for two future first rounders from Washington, followed by trading back into the first round by sending Khalil Mack to Cleveland for the 26th pick.

If I wasn’t already locked into an Offensive Tackle at 26 (while sorely tempted by the other value players on the board – Kwity Paye and Trevon Moehrig for me) I definitely was when faced with the prospect of dealing with Myles Garrett and Khalil Mack twice a year. And the Bears had just traded with us for Orlando Brown Jr, they weren’t going to take Teven Jenkins. They did. And just like that, the home run gamble of trading Orlando Brown for a true WR1 had not paid off as I’d have hoped. Don’t get me wrong, I’m still very happy with the addition of Allen Robinson, clearly a top five wide receiver and if he were to sign an extension with us to reduce his 2021 cap hit, as well as lock him in for a future in purple, I would be ecstatic. Finally Lamar gets a WR1.

But did I over-rate the importance of a WR1 in this offense? And did I under-sell the potential of what a significantly enhanced offensive line, including Orlando Brown, could do for Lamar? I think the answer to both of those questions is yes. But I was taken in by the splash move, by trading for one of my favourite non-Ravens in the league.

The hole I created on the offensive line, wreaked havoc with my draft though and it plagued every decision I made from then on out. In the end, I think I did well to stick to my board and make sound, Raven-like decisions but this story is clearly a cautionary tale about the pitfalls of trading Brown without a return that includes the draft capital to replace him. I was chasing my tail on offensive line additions all the way through the second round and had to reset when all of my day one OL starters were gone by the middle of the second round.

But I did get what I perceive to be great value with Kwity Paye at 27. I thought about a trade back but it seems like all the potential trade-up teams were looking to get above me to get Paye so wouldn’t now overpay me for a trade up. If I had traded back, I would have targeted someone like Eichenberg in the early 2nd who I like as a starting right tackle in our scheme but in the end the trade back and Eichenberg didn’t seem as valuable as getting Paye, my tenth overall rated player in this class.

1 – 27 Kwity Paye

For me, Paye is the best overall edge defender in the class. Jaelan Phillips is a better pure pass-rusher but Paye is a violent run defender who plays the run with smarts and discipline. He is more than capable of setting a physical edge and will fit into our scheme well. We also haven’t had a pass-rusher with his tools to develop before. He is athletically gifted with an excellent get-off and some bend and dip to him. The speed and explosion he had in his testing shows up on tape when he rushes the passer. Without a consistent pass rush plan as yet, he does flash some ability to combine his excellent feet with fast and precise hands to win quickly. He was asked to be a terror against the run in Ann Arbor and Michigan didn’t always put him in the most advantageous position to rush the passer. I think he can be a better pro than he was college player and the lack of production does not scare me off him. He will need to play as the Jack only in our scheme to begin with, as his movement skills in space are not yet advanced but he could develop into a more all-around stand up edge guy in time, given his athletic profile.

After the Paye pick, I knew all the OTs I liked for starting on the right side would be gone by pick 40, sure enough Jalen Mayfield followed Liam Eichenberg and now I was staring down the barrel. There was one more guy I liked, perhaps not as a day one starter for definite but with the potential to be. Before I focused on him, I wanted to think about upgrading somewhere else on the line. I like Dickerson, Davis and Humphrey as second round, day one starters at Guard or Center and upgrades for the Ravens on our interior. If I could secure four of the five spots, I would feel better about the neglect I showed to the RT position.

But the second round was where trades became more commonplace than selections. The value was not there for trading up and I would have had to severely overpay. It was then that I knew I was not going to be able to upgrade the OL with a day one starter. So I hatched a new plan.

I would trade back from my spot in the second and upgrade my third round pick. I also planned to trade back again and upgrade my fourth round pick to hopefully give us four picks in the first three rounds. We are a contending team with a lot of talented depth – there are not many roster spots left, upgrading our picks might help us secure more high-end talent in this draft.

I had seen some players falling, guys I like as rotational defensive contributors day one with a chance to develop into impact starters for the team in a year. Typical Ravens picks that fill holes before they appear. In this case the potential impending departures of Calais Campbell and DeShon Elliott.

I executed both the trades back I had planned and selected the following two defensive talents:

3 – 72: Jamar Johnson, S, Indiana

With Johnson you are getting a certified playmaker, if you want to see just his best games, go check out him getting two of the three picks the Hoosiers got against Justin Fields. The first one in particular shows off his excellent movement both laterally and on the 45, ignore the fumble on the return of the second one. He has decent range – clocking in at 4.58 on his pro day – don’t forget Ed Reed was 4.57. Now, I’m not saying he’s Ed by any stretch of the imagination but what they do have in common is that Johnson uses his smarts, anticipation and instincts to get off his spot quickly and play faster than his timed run suggests he would. He’s a little tight in his transitions but excellent at reading the quarterback and making plays on the ball. You also don’t sacrifice run defense for his prowess as a playmaker in the passing game. He breaks on the run quickly and can make plays on the ball carrier close to or at the line of scrimmage. He’s also dangerous on the blitz. There are times when you can see him take less than ideal angles and he will whiff on tackles in open space on occasion while chasing the big hit but he is a perfect fit for Wink’s defense and really bolsters our depth at the safety spot.

3 – 81: Milton Williams, DL, Louisiana Tech

Williams is a stereotypical late riser but those of us that watched his tape early in the process and saw a potential conversion inside at the next level, are not surprised. He was a rotational piece on the Louisiana Tech defensive line who I think projects best to a multiple defense where he will be moved around. The Calais Campbell, 5 technique type role on the Ravens defense is where I think he fits best (albeit with a slight lack of length for this). He was over-utilised as a wide pass rusher in college but he has intriguing athleticism and twitch that could be unlocked at the next level if used differently. He doesn’t have a developed arsenal of moves but he does flash some violence and quickness in his hands – mostly winning with a bull rush and rudimentary swim move but there is real potential to him as a pass rusher with pro coaching. He plays the run with discipline and power, keeping his eyes in the backfield and bench pressing his blocker before finishing with a play on the runner. You can sometimes see him blow up one entire side of the offensive line. If he can add a little more to his frame, he will be very good against the run at the next level.

The reason I was comfortable neglecting OL for these two was because my next highest rated OT, a guy I like ahead of Alex Leatherwood, Dillon Radunz, Spencer Brown, D’Ante Smith, James Hudson and Walker Little, all of whom were selected sometime in rounds two and three, is Stone Forsythe. I was very glad that he fell to the first pick of the fourth round and I grabbed him up there.

4 – 106: Stone Forsythe, OT, Florida

Again, a guy with very little attention at the start of the process but more so now. This time, unlike with Williams, I wasn’t on him early and have only come to his tape recently – I was glad when I did. Forsythe is a polarising player because of the Gators’ inability to run the ball this year and his part in it. He isn’t able to locate at the second level and only ever does enough in the run game – there is little nasty or finish. However he does have some power to unlock in this phase of the game and the Ravens will like him more than other teams because he does show some competency at the point of attack, namely some powerful down blocks and an ability to roll his hips on contact that will mean the more heavy gap teams will be intrigued. Where he does excel is in pass protection, he took the best the SEC had to offer and he lived up to his name. He is a giant and he deploys this length expertly in pass protection. He is patient and times his punch well which is also accurate and powerful. The movement, which you see lacking in open spaces, is impressive when moving laterally in his kick-slide which he combines with more natural bend than you would expect for a man his size. Rarely, if ever, in trouble in pass protection against some of the pass rushers that will have their name called early this year, Stone Forsythe could be a steal in the mid-rounds.

He’s also a good example of feeling a little more of how it feels to be a real GM than the simulators give you. Stone Forsythe is not highly rated at all and I’m sure the simulators would allow you to wait until the seventh round to pick up what I believe to be a potential down-the-road starter for your team. But it only takes one GM to like him and you lose him, I couldn’t wait until the fifth round to take him given the chasm of over sixty picks between my selections at the top of the fourth and the bottom of the fifth. He was the highest rated player on my board by the time I picked in the fourth so I stuck to my board instead of playing Russian roulette and hoping to see him fall to the pick in the fifth round. I gave up some other talented players to pick him but I think it was a good choice.

I also think in real life the Ravens might be able to afford waiting on him as I did in the real draft, as heavy zone blocking teams will likely stay away from him.

Round 5 brings two late selections for the Ravens and I went heavy on defense again, as I did earlier in the draft.

5 – 171: Khyiris Tonga, NT, BYU

5 – 184: Patrick Johnson, EDGE, Tulane

Tonga and Johnson are great fits for our defense. Tonga could develop as a nose tackle behind Brandon Williams in case of his eventual departure. He’s a terror against the run, he plays with outstanding leverage – he can occupy double teams with ease and will often make plays on the ball carrier or at least affect the run. He has excellent functional athleticism for his size but he did come off the field more often than I would have liked. Patrick Johnson is an intriguing developmental SAM who could enter our edge rotation as he develops. He has dropped in coverage more often than most of the edge guys in this year’s class (albeit with some tightness) but still matches their sack production on a far limited pass rush snap count. I see a guy who maintains a more physical edge than his size would suggest he would, and some flashes of explosion and technique in his pass rush. Unsurprisingly given his sack total relative to his total number of pressures, I really like his finish as a pass rusher.

Once I’d gone with two more defenders, I knew I wanted to go back to the offensive side and I knew I needed to double dip on the offensive line so the sixth round and the final pick was always a spot for another lineman.

6 – 210: Brenden Jaimes, OL, Nebraska

Jaimes is a pretty strange size and shape for an offensive linemen (sidebar – exaggerated by the way he tucks his shirt into his pants) but I think he’s a potential developmental starter and I like his fit as a potential guard conversion. This is because he moves well laterally but doesn’t quite have the ideal length to hold up outside – though I’d try him there first. What he does have though is excellent hand timing and although he doesn’t have the heavy hands I often look for too much in an offensive linemen he isn’t often beaten with his hands. This is because he is a smart lineman, a strategist with his hands, he counters defensive linemen exceptionally well and fights to stay engaged and in front of his guy. He drops a very effective anchor when challenged with straight power into his chest and he’s powerful at the point of attack. Like Forsythe, he struggles a little to locate at the second level but he does have some nasty to him and has some dominant flashes at the line of scrimmage as a run blocker.

So there you have it, my draft class when challenged with real people GMs running the other teams. Some takeaways – its heavy defense but I hit on some of my favourite players in the draft and got some good value. I also think we are due a heavier defensive draft to inject some younger talent on that side of the ball. I didn’t address receiver again but with Allen Robinson in the building, I’m not sure a later round receiver makes the team. I didn’t like neglecting the Tight End position as I think we need another Hurst-type there but the value never lined up and Lamar can make do with A-Rob as his additional pass-catching weapon. I mainly wasn’t a fan of the neglect I showed to the offensive line. The Zeitler signing turned it into a strength but I think I may have turned it back into less of a strength with my moves here. I like Forsythe and Jaimes a lot but they don’t fill the Orlando Brown sized hole on the line day one and we are competing next year. This draft would have to be accompanied with a veteran signing like Mitchell Schwartz or a non-retiring Rick Wagner. What I think I did do though was fortify our defense for potential future departures and get us some talent that can develop and start for us down the line when we need it.