Rinse and repeat - who do the Ravens target in their edge rusher draft strategy?
We all know the rinse and repeat formula that we’ve seen from the Ravens over recent years when it comes to edge rushers. Ever since Sizzle ended up on the down slope of his career, we have been searching for that next Ravens edge rusher. The guy that can hold the jack spot down for several years. What happens most years, is that an edge guy we took in the draft three years ago, steps up in a contract year and produces before going elsewhere in free agency for a monster contract.
Normally, that was a fool’s errand for those departing pass-rushers, going back as far as Paul Kruger and Pernell McPhee, we saw them leave and fizzle out elsewhere. Though the Ravens tagged Matt Judon this year, probably in fear of another Za’darius Smith situation where we let a good one walk out of the door, who’s skills weren’t actually accentuated by our scheme and was pretty good on his own.
I think they feel comfortable letting Judon go now, and he will get a packet in free agency. With us needing to address other needs, he likely won’t be back. But the Ravens recognised they were short in this spot, which is not usually the case, when they traded for Ngakoue, who will also likely leave. They usually believe they can scheme up enough pressure to get by as they rotate in situational pass rushers with their one-year wonder former draftee holding down one spot.
Why are they short?
A quick look back at our draft history answers that question pretty swiftly. We didn’t take an edge rusher in 2018 and two of the most recent three picks before that year have not worked out in Kamalei Correa and Tim Williams. In short, the cupboard of homegrown talent has been bare for the first time in years. I don’t think its actually Jaylon Ferguson’s fault – although you would have wanted a second round pick to develop quicker than he has, usually our pass rushers take their time to break out – this next year is a big one for him.
I think the Ravens will feel caught out badly by this scenario, finding themselves so bereft of homegrown talent at a premium position is something they are not accustomed to. In short, I think they’re ready to dip into the edge rusher bucket in this upcoming draft, possibly multiple times but at least once to begin the process of re-stocking at the position.
What do they look for?
To answer this question we must dive deeper into the Ravens draft history and look at some of our tendencies in the same way I looked at the Steelers draft tendencies in a recent post. It’s important to note here that this won’t be as perfect a science as it was with the Steelers. Colbert has been the unquestioned decision maker for decades there, while Eric De Costa is relatively still getting his feet under the table.
However, we know that De Costa was part of the brain trust for many years and, while he will be putting his stamp on the draft strategy, many things will remain the same. We must be mindful of any changes to a long-held approach in the last two years but know that much of our philosophy from the Ozzie years will have remained the same.
When it comes to edge rushers, we know the Ravens like to go there in the middle rounds of the draft, most frequently drafting them in the third, fourth and fifth rounds. They look for value and rarely take the top ranked prospects in a class. That’s not to say they don’t like the top guys, there were rumours they were particularly enamoured with Khalil Mack but they have never been in the position to take one. They clearly have not seen value at the position at the end of round one and I’d be surprised if they did again this year.
When you start looking at draft history, the first thing you do is plug in the player’s names and their heights and weights. We sort of know the first thing the Ravens look for, or should be looking for, in knowing the Ravens scheme, but our draft history demonstrates it very clearly. The Ravens like bigger 270lb plus types for their primary edge rusher spot. They are almost exclusively hand in the dirt, defensive ends in college that we convert. We have tried smaller ends – Kamalei Correa – and we have tried smaller rush linebackers in college – Tim Williams – albeit without great frequency, that haven’t worked out. All of our successful pieces have been 270lb plus conversions.
So if we like bigger guys, do we like them to be more athletic than most so that they might be able to stand-up at the next level? Not really is the answer. Za’darius Smith, Matt Judon and Pernell McPhee were all in the top quarter of prospects of their size in the 40 yard dash but none were particularly fast for an edge rusher let alone an outside linebacker. Generally there is nothing remarkable about the athletic testing of our edge rusher picks.
What we do like, and I think this is an open secret if you’re a Ravens fan watching the draft more closely, is sacks. We’ve heard this front office talk before about the fact that they think sack production empirically translates to the next level and it bears out in their selections at the position. I would finesse this slightly to say pressures, not sacks, as we know that sacks as a statistic is quite transient and dependent on opportunities whereas pressures show how often the edge rusher is winning his battle with the offensive lineman.
We’ll call this focus on pressures not sacks, the Za’darius Smith rule. I don’t believe that the Ravens front office would give away all their secrets and what I’ve outlined above is reason enough to suspect that they look at pressures at the college level but this has surely been reinforced by Za’darius. The one guy I’m sure they wish they didn’t let go, is the one who hadn’t seen great sack production at Kentucky. He only had 6 in his final season but he did have over 40 pressures, something he, Judon, Correa, Williams, and Ferguson all have in common.
As with my piece on the Steelers, I would hypothesise that the Ravens don’t look at production to eliminate or qualify certain prospects for removal or addition to our draft board but the statistics can certainly paint a picture of what they look for. One way in which it does this is the Ravens desire for their primary edge player to be good, if not dominant against the run. You must have both clubs in your bag to play the jack spot for the Ravens and this shows up in the number of tackles for loss or no (minimal) gain from the players we have selected. There is a floor of 20-25 in their best season, on the guys they have taken and I’m sure they would like more than this, like with Jaylon Ferguson’s over 40.
So we have a pretty good profile of what they are looking for at the edge rusher position already but I wanted to dive a little deeper and see if there were any other indicators. I noticed that Tim Williams and Kamalei Correa were both part of defensive fronts at Alabama and BYU respectively that were part of a top 5 defensive line efficiency-wise according to Football Outsiders. This wasn’t the case with others in the group but does appear to be more of a trend when looking at defensive linemen as a whole group, selected in the Ozzie era specifically. It appears that for edge rushers with De Costa at the helm it’s just a nice-to-have.
Who will they be looking at in this class?
With all this established, I’m going to take you through a review of the mid-round pass rushers the Ravens might have eyes for in this draft class. Using the profile created to eliminate any candidates they likely won’t be looking at or will have eliminated themselves through their process because of what they are looking for on tape, that will have been betrayed by the numbers that these prospects put up.
I should say that this is a strange year so I’m going to assume that the Ravens will likely be giving some slack to prospects who didn’t play a normal amount of snaps and may look back to their whole college career to find what they’re looking for.
Before we dive in to the mid-round prospects – a quick look at the potential fits in the first round is a fun exercise. Azeez Ojulari, as I mused in my piece reviewing him as a potential first rounder, is a little undersized for them, although he ticks all the other boxes – it’s the same story for Quincy Roche (they will love his final year at Temple). I think they stay away from Oweh definitely and possibly Ossai too because of the lack of sack production. This would be the order on their draft board of the remaining premium prospects…
1. Gregory Rousseau
2. Jaelan Phillips
3. Kwity Paye
My personal favourite in this group is Paye and he’s the ideal size, with the other two slightly under what is successful in our scheme. But the Ravens will likely not be able to resist Rousseau’s sack total from the 2019 season.
Having said all that, it’s unlikely they take an edge rusher in the first round, maybe one of those three drops to them and they’re high enough on them to see the value, but it’s infinitely more likely that the Ravens are doing their due diligence on the mid-round options. Here are those I think fit the bill and my review of them:
Patrick Jones II
I watched the Pitt defense a lot this year because they were really good and faced a number of elite offensive prospects so I’ve subliminally watched a lot of Jones, and Weaver who also appears in this list. That means he gets a tick for being part of an elite defensive line, top 5 in the nation according to Football Outsiders. Jones is listed at 260, though he looks on tape as though that might be a little generous. He does have some power to his game so I felt comfortable still including him here. He fits the bill in terms of production, picking up almost the numbers you would expect to see from a Ravens edge rusher in college in this shortened season as well as hitting the target numbers last year.
In terms of his game, he’s a twitchy pass-rusher with good get-off and explosion. He also has some of the most impressive bend and dip in this year’s class, frequently bending the edge and finishing at the QB, flashing an ability to convert speed to power. He could use his hands more and his swim technique is too elongated, leaving him standing up too tall to gain any leverage. He is good against the run, sometimes loses outside leverage due to his desire to get up field, but he’s disruptive and makes plays on the ball carrier.
Carlos Basham
Much bigger and more in the Pernell McPhee mould, Basham had a significantly down year in terms of production but this was almost certainly due to a reduced snap count across only seven games. Wake were nothing special on the defensive line this year, or last, so he doesn’t fit that part of the profile but I do think, in a generally undersized defensive line class, the Ravens will give Basham some due diligence as a projection to a stand-up guy at the next level. In reality he might be more of a candidate for the 5 technique spot on the defensive line, something he played frequently at Wake too. He would certainly be used inventively in the way that McPhee was when he first arrived.
The reason I think he’s more of a candidate to stand up at the next level for the Ravens though was because I didn’t love his play against the run at Wake and our defensive linemen need to be highly competent run defenders. He doesn’t play with consistent gap discipline and you can scheme to collapse his entire side of the defensive front due to his over-aggressiveness. His profile in terms of production fits better as an edge rusher for the Ravens than it does on the defensive line and I think that is borne out in his play too. He might just generally be a better fit in a 4-3, given he is a twitchy pass rusher for his size with elite length. And I think he’s too much of a projection for the Ravens to consider him given he will likely be taken on day 2.
Victor Dimukeje
Not a familiar name if you’re only looking at the more heralded guys and certainly not from a defense or a defensive line to write home about. He did play alongside Chris Rumph, who they moved all over the formation at Duke. He was close to fitting the bill himself but he is undersized and very likely an off-the ball linebacker at the next level, certainly not a jack in our scheme. Dimukeje had some productive years himself, matching or bettering Patrick Jones across most of the important categories over the past two years. A projection from a 4-3 scheme that the Ravens love, he is listed at 265 and looks to have that size on tape but I’d be interested to see an official listing.
On tape he isn’t the most explosive but he is a polished, smart and unselfish defender. He plays the run with leverage and sets a disciplined edge in the run game. You can see him get underneath the pads of an offensive lineman and intelligently control the point of attack so as to make a play or let his teammates make a play. His hand-fighting is precise, effective and sometimes violent – it’s his best quality by far as a pass rusher. And there has to be something said for the fact that teams come out with a game-plan to neutralise him with frequent double teams – perhaps why being part of a good defensive line is only a nice-to-have part of the profile. While the attention he got at Duke possibly signals a higher ceiling at the next level, I’m not sure the rest of his traits suggest the same and it might be this that puts the Ravens off.
Tarron Jackson
Unlikely to see a Coastal Carolina player on this list but their ascendant programme figures to have more and more draftable prospects as they continue to improve. The Chanticleers had an outrageously good 11-1 year in 2020 to follow up a 5-7 year in 2019 but Tarron Jackson produced across both years at a level the Ravens would take notice of. Another 260lb guy he looks to have that size on tape.
Speaking of the tape he has a stand-out trait the minute you start watching him. As a pass rusher he has elite hands; they are lightning fast, precise and violent and he’s relied on them to disengage consistently at the college level. He has some power to him too and has flashed some bull rush. He doesn’t have elite explosion, bend or dip but his pass rush arsenal is well stocked full of impressive hand moves. He is disciplined if a little unspectacular as a run defender, he can be pushed off the point of attack and you’d like to see him play with more leverage. But he works hard to play the run efficiently and picks up a lot of stops thanks to his disruptive hands allowing him to disengage quickly as well as his high effort and motor.
Patrick Johnson
Like Jackson, the Green Wave is not normally a program often frequented for draft prospects but I’m a big Patrick Johnson fan on tape and was glad to see he fits the profile for the Ravens. He is a little undersized and you would want him to bulk up some for the next level but his numbers, in terms of pressures, sacks and run stops, fit the bill. Tulane was a good defensive line against the pass this year and Johnson was part of that while also being one of their more promising run defenders.
He plays the run with great discipline and plays above his size as an edge setter, maintaining a physical edge remarkably consistently. He has a good get-off and enough explosion to combine with his powerful and precise hands when rushing the passer. His moves are well developed and you see frequent use of multiple different ways to disengage – I particularly like the finish to his disengage. He doesn’t have regular opportunities to do it but I also like his bend and dip around the corner when he can pin his ears back. And best of all, he is physical and tough, which shows up in his play consistently as well as being a captain and a leader of the Tulane defense.
Honorary Mentions
No this isn’t a guy with a very odd name you hadn’t heard of, I wanted to add some extra guys to the list that who don’t quite fit the profile but have some things we look for. Hamilcar Rashed Jr., who is not even close to the size we would like, did have a monster year production wise in 2019 that the Ravens would take note of. As well as Rashad Weaver and Wyatt Hubert who both have the size we are looking for but not quite the production.
For me, the two that look most like Ravens are Victor Dimukeje and Patrick Johnson, with a preference for me for Johnson. They have enough of a best fit across the profile that it looks like the Ravens have established, as well as playing like Ravens on tape, physical, smart and disciplined. However, in a year when the Ravens would like lots of perfect options to fill a void, they don’t actually have that many. All of the names on this list don’t quite fit from either a production, size or style of play perspective, they may break the mould this year.