The Ravens defensive line draft tendencies - finding the next Justin Madubuike
The Ravens badly need an edge-rusher or several this off-season but a sneaky also-need remains on the defensive line, despite spending significant off-season resources on the position last year.
Derek Wolfe was a mainstay this year and I, for one, hope they bring him back. Either way, Wolfe was essentially the replacement for Michael Brockers who they had signed to a three year deal which didn’t go through due to Brockers’ physical. This, along with the draft selections of Justin Madubuike and Broderick Washington tell us that the Ravens were looking to get younger and more longer-term solutions on a defensive line that has seemingly always had promising recent draft picks waiting to step up, until last year. In the same way that I felt the cupboard is suddenly bare for edge-rushers this year, it was for defensive linemen last year.
They have begun to fix the problem, for sure. Calais Campbell must stay healthy this year for the Ravens to make a run at a championship and Madubuike must continue his already impressive development. They must not cut Brandon Williams and swallow his cap hit for another year, as well as hopefully bringing back the effective Wolfe. On top of that, you hope that Broderick Washington becomes more of a rotational piece this year but the depth beyond this is not yet encouraging. And if it is Campbell, Wolfe and Williams who dominate the snap count again this year, you know that plaster is not going to hold forever. The Ravens have to dip in the draft again for more defensive linemen.
Outside of their primary edge-rusher, the Ravens have three base defensive line positions to fill. Their 5 technique, 3 technique and 0 technique or nose tackle. Because they are such a multiple defense, it is a little simplistic of me to reduce the Ravens to these position types but they are the more commonly understood terms for types of defensive linemen. It is relevant though that D-linemen with the Ravens will vary their alignments wildly from snap to snap, and a look back over the Ravens recent depth charts will tell you that their linemen need to be flexible year to year even with a simple viewing of the Ravens defensive line positions.
It’s also true that they will try most of their young draft picks at both 5 technique and 3 technique. This is likely because the positions are so interchangeable and the designations mean so little in such a complex defense. They have a prototype for each position, but given the way they move their defenders around, they must be versatile. However in the draft, they are essentially looking for only two different types of player to fill these three positions.
This piece is going to focus mostly on the 3 technique and 5 technique types. For the Nose Tackle, it’s enough to say the Ravens have not regularly looked to fill the nose position with draft capital. This is probably because of the existence of Brandon Williams as a dependable starter for years but also because they pride themselves on finding diamonds in the rough at this position who work well in our scheme and are undervalued by other teams until after they have played three years for us – see Michael Pierce. Looking at the numbers, they like massive but relatively athletic guys for this spot and there are very few of them in most draft classes, including this one.
So what do the Ravens look for at the other two defensive line positions? As with my post on edge-rushers, I dived into the numbers, using for this post the last decade of draft selections. It’s also worth saying again that you can try and look at the history of selections through the evaluations of their play on the field but this is subjective. When looking for patterns in the draft history of teams, I like to look at empirical data only to form an objective picture, before then using this to create a list of players to look for from the current draft class. As with the edge defenders I was also wary of the changeover from Ozzie to Eric and any significant changes in the profile in the last two years.
This is the summary, read on for the explanation, but if you want to know the prototype, it’s basically Justin Madubuike, who ticked all these boxes, hence his presence in the title of this piece.
• 295lb plus – they will only compromise this for height
• Athletic – all but two of their ten selections ran a 40 yard dash ran slower than 5.0
• Productive – a prospect must have a season with at least 20 run stops and 35 pressures
• Proven ability to play our way – since 2016 every player selected has experience in a multiple or pure 3-4 defensive scheme
• Part of a unit that knows what it takes to stop the run – many players drafted have been part of a defensive line that regularly stopped running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage
First things first, and even more important with defensive linemen given the many different flavours you can find at the college level, is height and weight. The Ravens do have a slight preference for abnormally tall defensive linemen because they think they best fill their five-technique spot with height. I think this probably stems back to Trevor Pryce, who so ably manned the position for so long and with such good sack production. Brent Urban, Bronson Kaufusi and Zach Sieler all look like, ultimately unsuccessful, attempts to land the next Trevor Pryce. Instead they went out and traded for him in Calais Campbell.
But the height isn’t a pre-requisite to play that position for the Ravens, nor do they need it for the 3 technique defensive tackle position. They do have a floor in terms of weight though – 295lb and above is usually what they are looking for, and only twice have they selected defensive linemen under 290 – Sieler and Kaufusi who made up for it with their height.
In terms of an athletic profile there is more of a pattern to their defensive line selections than there was at edge rusher. The Ravens are looking for guys who show good athleticism for their size and this manifests itself most consistently in the 40 yard dash results and 10 yard splits of their draft picks. They generally look for bigger guys than other teams do, so this might be just a by-product of their desire for that size. However, of the ten defensive linemen they selected who ran 40 yard dashes, every single one of them were in the fastest quarter of runners comparable to their size. Given that this list is stuffed full of 300 pound plus guys it is remarkable that only two of the ten ran slower than five seconds flat.
The athletic testing of all of these selections is littered with other impressive performances outside of the 40 too, whether it be Carl Davis’ 4.47 short shuttle at 320lbs – not completely out of place in a linebacker room or Bronson Kaufusi’s 7.03 three cone drill – comparable to most running backs, it is clear that the Ravens like athletic defensive linemen.
As with the edge rushers, there is a clear pattern to the production they look for from their defensive linemen too. They like run stops and they like sacks, again. As with the edge rushers, and perhaps more so with defensive linemen, sacks can be further extrapolated out to pressures. The Ravens like to see their linemen consistently winning their battles as pass rushers and consistently blowing up the running game. Obviously, every team looks for these things but it’s important to note that the Ravens will rarely, if ever, draft exceptions to the rule. Production is almost essential to them at these two positions. You must have had a season with at least 20 run stops and at least 35 pressures. Sacks are less important but the majority of selections had five or more.
As I was looking through this list and the teams they were a part of, I noticed that since Carl Davis in 2015, we have not selected a defensive lineman that didn’t have some experience being part of a multiple or 3-4 defensive front. The Ravens now habitually steer clear of pure 4-3 guys on the defensive line. There has been a proliferation of more multiple defenses at the college level, so the pool of players with experience of this has widened significantly in recent years, likely to the point where the Ravens are not comfortable with projecting the ability to two-gap unless the linemen has proven he can do it at the college level.
Finally, it isn’t a pre-requisite but the Ravens often take players who know what it takes to be part of a unit that can stuff the run at a high rate. Since 2016, only Broderick Washington was part of a defensive line that, according to Football Outsiders, wasn’t in the top third of defensive lines at the college level for the rate of regularity that they stopped running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage. In addition to this Bronson Kaufusi, Chris Wormley, Daylon Mack and Justin Madubuike were all part of elite units in this regard, all of their respective defensive lines appearing in the top ten.
So, if this is what the Ravens are looking for, who fits the bill in this year’s draft? Not many guys is the answer, this isn’t a deep or productive defensive line class. There are five that fit the bill and I’ve reviewed them below. Those that were close but didn’t make the cut for various reasons included Tommy Togiai, Jalen Twyman and Jonathan Marshall.
Christian Barmore
There have been plenty of Alabama defensive linemen mocked to the Ravens over the years, only Terrence Cody made it as a Ravens pick but we have been in position to take Alabama defensive line studs who have made it as highly productive NFL players. It is likely that the Ravens are salivating over Christian Barmore, who is not only a good height from a programme that runs a complex and multiple defense, he was highly productive. Jonathan Allen was one of the most productive linemen in college in the past decade, Barmore, who played two thirds the number of snaps Allen did in his final college season, was on pace for the same numbers as Allen in terms of pressures, sacks and run stops. The only mark against him, in terms of the Ravens profile, is the Alabama defense was not at all good at stopping running backs at or behind the line of scrimmage but they were also ahead of their opponents for an abnormally large amount of time this season, likely messing with that number slightly.
In terms of the player, his imposing size translates to serious power. This power goes from his lower body through to his arms and hands and allows him to consistently win inside despite his often lack of leverage (because of his relative height and tendency to play a little high) and his under-developed pass rush arsenal. He has active hands that are not yet developed enough to suggest he has true technique but he does have an occasionally effective swim move, which at its best looks like he’s mauling the offensive lineman but at its worst can windmill a little and get him blocked. He has weaponised his raw power to alarming effect, putting offensive linemen on skates with his bull rush. He hasn’t consistently proven his ability to two-gap on tape and he isn’t as developed as others in the class in his play against the run, but arguably he wasn’t given the chance to as he wasn’t always deployed on likely running downs. When he does play the run, he makes splashy plays in the backfield at a pretty regular clip due to his ridiculous ability to shed blocks. This is a developmental player in the Ravens scheme as they will require him to get better against the run on a consistent basis but his pass rush potential from the inside is frightening and they may fall in love.
Osa Odighizuwa
As this year was so strange and left so many players down on snap counts, it behoved me to look down the list to find some players who may not have fit the bill perfectly in terms of production this year but may have done if they had played a full season. 600 snaps is about normal for a college football season for a defender although it does vary wildly with role and team. The Pac-12 played an especially depleted schedule this year so despite his missing some of the floors that the Ravens look for statistically, Osa Odighizuwa does make this list owing to only playing 450 snaps on the UCLA Bruins defensive line this year. He still managed 25 pressures and 19 stops which isn’t that far off the statistical baseline. He’s also not a perfect fit from a weight perspective only coming in at 280lbs and without the height to compensate for it. UCLA played a 4-2-5 scheme mostly but they did utilise a rush linebacker in the way the Ravens do so Odighizuwa does have some of the experience necessary here, although he has not played as part of a remotely statistically efficient defensive line at stopping the run.
As a player, he understands leverage and gets significant pocket push when he’s locked up with his offensive line counterpart, constantly working with his hands, which are active, to disengage. His hands are precise, violent and fast, but you would like to see him learn more finish in his pass rush. He can get the offensive lineman in compromising situations, on the verge of being soundly beaten but he then doesn’t have the consistently effective swim or rip to emphatically disengage. He moves exceptionally well for his size and he will even rush off the edge with some bend and dip to him – not getting carried away here but he is an athletic guy for his size. He’s extremely versatile and moves all over the UCLA defensive line but they like to get him in obvious passing situations and didn’t believe in his abilities as a run defender as much. When I see him play the run, I see a guy who hasn’t had to play it as much in his career so can be a little unpolished but who works exceptionally hard to maintain gap discipline, who keeps his eyes in the backfield and works to the ball carrier before making a play. What I don’t see is a consistent space-eating two-gapper and, as with Barmore, the Ravens may need to develop this part of his game – albeit he will come with significantly less of a cost than the Crimson Tide defender who will almost certainly be taken in the first round.
Darius Stills
Like Odighizuwa, another guy right on the lower limit of what the Ravens could stomach in terms of weight at defensive line and someone who does not meet the production standards the Ravens set if looking at this year (he played a decent amount of snaps). However looking back to 2019, Stills makes the cut with enough pressures and run stops. He also plays in a multiple defensive front at West Virginia, playing snaps at several different alignments while also being part of an effective defensive front against the run this year.
On tape Stills doesn’t have the length that Odighizuwa has that helps him be more palatable as an undersized prospect for our defensive front. I mention this because I have watched us pass on some of my favourite defensive line prospects over the years, presumably because of this lack of length for conversion to our scheme. He understands leverage and will push the pocket – he can jack up the interior lineman and walk him back into the quarterback’s lap but he doesn’t have the hands or technique to counter an effective anchor from the offensive lineman. He does show some polished pass rush technique with an effective swim move but it isn’t used consistently in combination with his other traits to disengage – he is relentless, physical and violent, you’d just like to see more polish. Against the run, he doesn’t consistently show an ability to occupy the double team but he works hard to affect the run either with a play on the ball-carrier or by walking back his man into the running lane. You’d like to see a little more of the latter and a little less of the former though, as when he works off blocks to make plays it can be a little undisciplined and mean the defense loses it’s gap integrity. This, can be combined with the fact that he just doesn’t quite have the size to dominate the point of attack as you would want for a Raven.
Levi Onwuzurike
Another guy that you have to roll back the clock to 2019 for his best fit for the Ravens prototype is Levi Onwuzurike out of Washington. And I’m ecstatic about this one as it lets me talk about one of my favourite prospects in this year’s class. He fits the prototype on every count except for being a little bit under on production. I gave him a pass though, due to a slightly reduced snap count in 2019, as well as my knowledge of the way he was deployed at Washington – they used him away from his best position frequently because of his versatility and it undoubtedly hurt his production. Washington also didn’t have a terribly efficient defensive line which is another mark against him but wow does he look like a Raven on tape. I have a Play Like a Raven post coming this week about him so I will keep this brief but he owns the point of attack and consistently two-gaps – sometimes it takes three guys to block him and he’ll still occupy them all. He has some work to do to be more consistent as a pass rusher but the raw power is there. I love him.
Mustafa Johnson
Going right out there for the final guy on the list, Mustafa Johnson from Colorado did not live up to the Ravens’ standards in 2020, though he was close to on pace for it with a reduced snap count, or 2019 either but he did in 2018. In fact his production was better than Barmore, the most productive guy on this list. He has the weight you would look for from the position for the Ravens but not the height, which I’m sure is smaller than he is listed. Also, the Colorado defensive front is relatively multiple as well as being very efficient in stopping the run for no gain or a loss. According to Football Outsiders in 2018 and 2020, his most effective years, they were 19th in the nation and 6th respectively. In fact if you give him the pass in 2019 and equate his 2020 production to what it would have been in a full year, Johnson fits the prototype best out of all these options.
He’s certainly the least heralded of all the prospects and that shows on his tape. He can get moved at the point of attack, he doesn’t quite dig the trench you’re looking for against the run and can be put on skates at times but has improved at this over his career. His length is not quite what you need for an interior piece in the Ravens defense not at nose, and he can struggle against longer-levered offensive linemen. He moves well in space for his size, evades the cut block of bigger linemen with ease and flashes being too nimble for interior linemen. He is relentless and he meets his opponent with physicality and quickness at the point of attack, and he is tough. There is little pass rush technique to speak of and he certainly isn’t active enough with his hands to be a higher value draft pick. Against the run inside, he uses his natural leverage well and his upper body strength to control the point of attack at times but this isn’t consistent. He also doesn’t consistently occupy the double team. He’s intriguing though and would make a good developmental late-round flyer.
As you can see, there are not many faces that fit. The Ravens are short on options this year in the draft so they better grab one of their guys, or perhaps prepare for another off-season where defensive line rears its head as a primary need instead of a luxury.